Imperfect recall and time inconsistencies: an experimental test of the absentminded driver "paradox"
نویسندگان
چکیده
Absentmindedness is a special case of imperfect recall which according to Piccione and Rubinstein (1997a) leads to time inconsistencies. Aumann, Hart and Perry (1997a) question their argument and show how dynamic inconsistencies can be resolved. The present paper explores this issue from a descriptive point of view by examining the behavior of absentminded individuals in a laboratory environment. Absentmindedness is manipulated in two ways. In one treatment, it is induced by cognitively overloading participants. In the other, it is imposed by randomly matching decisions with decision nodes in the information set. The results provide evidence for time inconsistencies in all treatments. We introduce a behavioral principal, which best explains the data.
منابع مشابه
On the Interpretation of Decision Problems with Imperfect Recall
In this paper it is argued that extensive decision problems (extensive games with a single player) with imperfect recall suffer from major ambiguities in the interpretation of information sets and strategies. This indeterminacy allows for different kinds of analysis. We address the following issues: 1. Randomization at information sets 2. Consistent beliefs 3. Time consistency of optimal plans ...
متن کاملRemarks on the Absentminded Driver
Piccione and Rubinstein (1997) present and analyse the sequential (extensiveform) decision problem of an “absentminded driver”. The driver’s absentmindedness (imperfect recall) leads him to time-inconsistent strategy evaluations. There is thus a danger that such an agent might have reason to renege on his adopted strategy. As we shall see, however, this danger is only apparent. There is no seri...
متن کاملInducing Absent-Mindedness in the Lab
After years of neglect, Piccione and Rubinstein (1997a) re-examined the problem of imperfect recall and its implications for game theory. They introduced the notion of absent-mindedness through a decision-making problem called the absentminded driver's paradox. This simple game precipitated a vigorous discussion with different researchers having strong opinions about whether the paradox actuall...
متن کاملDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS WORKING PAPER SERIES Inducing Absent-Mindedness in the Lab
After years of neglect, Piccione and Rubinstein (1997a) re-examined the problem of imperfect recall and its implications for game theory. They introduced the notion of absent-mindedness through a decision-making problem called the absentminded driver's paradox. This simple game precipitated a vigorous discussion with different researchers having strong opinions about whether the paradox actuall...
متن کاملA Note On Imperfect Recall
The Paradox of the Absent-Minded Driver is used in the literature to draw attention to the inadequacy of Savage’s theory of subjective probability when its underlying epistomological assumptions fail to be satisfied. This note suggests that the paradox is less telling when the uncertainties involved admit an objective interpretation as frequencies. A Note On Imperfect Recalll
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
- Int. J. Game Theory
دوره 43 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2014